Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors

Using a long sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947–2010, we examine the out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices by means of macroeconomic and financial variables. Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the investment–capital ratio have some predictive power at longer (yearly) horizons. Commodity price predictability is strongest when based on multivariate approaches that account for parameter estimation error. Commodity price predictability varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during economic recessions.     

国土空间规划背景下水利风景区规划思路探析

党的十八大以来,确定了以国土空间规划为主的空间规划体系,因而水利风景区规划需遵循"多规合一"的要求。归纳梳理了国土空间规划区域统筹、资源系统配置和刚性约束等要求,基于资源有限性思维对水利风景资源的水利和风景属性进行解析,明确了水利风景资源的要义与主要对象,提出水利风景区是水利文化景观区域。尝试从水利风景区规划的职能作用、与其他相关规划的差异与联系等方面对水利风景区规划进行功能定位,并分析了其与其他规划的衔接关系;明确了水利风景区规划的规划对象,基于水利风景区功能目标和面临的问题明晰了水利风景区的规划内容,建构了以水利特色彰显为目标的控制体系。     

论我国旅游业专项立法的完善

主要结合我国旅游业发展、旅游者权益保护来研究旅游业的立法状况，讨论了旅游业专项立法的具体情况及其存在的问题，在旅行社、景区和饭店三大旅游模块内容的专项立法方面做了深入的探讨，并提出若干建议。     

我国中部地区旅游业发展现状分析及发展建议研究

随着我国旅游业的大发展，区域间旅游业的发展水平差异也日渐显露出来。在分析中部地区旅游业在全国旅游业发展中的地位以及区域间的水平差异的基础上，充分分析了中部旅游业发展中存在问题，并针对这些问题给出了今后旅游业的发展建议。     

景区经营的价值偏差与政府责任探讨

文章指出,景区的市场经营中出现了一些价值偏差,由于政府行为与景区的经营发展密切相关,因此政府在景区经营发展中应承担资源保护,促进当地经济社会文化生活协调发展,保护当地民俗文化,维护旅游从业人员合法权益等责任。政府应坚持正确的景区经营发展价值取向,改革景区管理体制,引导景区科学规划,将民俗文化的保护纳入景区旅游工作的重点以促进景区的发展。     

The Lead-Lag Relation Between Spot and Futures Markets Under Different Short-Selling Regimes

We examine the lead‐lag relation between index futures and the underlying index under three types of short‐selling restrictions on stocks in Hong Kong. Our results indicate that lifting short‐selling restrictions can enhance the informational efficiency of the stock market relative to the index futures. We also investigate the impact of two market characteristics, market conditions and the magnitude of mispricing on the lead‐lag relations under different short‐selling regimes. Our findings suggest that if we remove restrictions, the contemporaneous price relation between the futures and cash markets becomes stronger particularly in the falling market and when the cash market is relatively overpriced.     

Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we examine the stationarity of all the rates comprising the USD, GBP, DM and JPY spot and forward term structures. Instead of focussing on short maturity interest rates, as most other papers do, we perform a detailed analysis of the whole range of spot and forward interest rates of the 4 main currencies. We investigate the issue of stationarity within the framework of an equilibrium interest rate model such as Vasicek (1977), that defines the cross-sectional and time series properties that interest rates of various maturities must satisfy. We show that within a one-factor interest rate model, such as Vasicek, all interest rates are restricted to exhibit the same mean reverting behaviour. This restriction allows us to apply more powerful panel unit root tests. This methodology increases considerably the number of observations available and as a result the power of the unit root tests. The higher power of these tests allows us to demonstrate that there does exist mean reversion on the spot and forward US interest rates and the forward DM and GBP interest rates.     

谈现场短新闻的三要素

在信息如潮的时代，人们的生活节奏在加快，新、短、快的新闻更能赢得受众的喜爱。所以提倡新闻记者采写现场短新闻。     

重庆旅游商品市场现状及开发策略

重庆旅游发展迅速，但旅游商品却滞后于整个旅游业的发展。通过对重庆旅游商品市场的调查研究，本文主要从经营者、旅游商品本身及其营销环节等三个角度，分析了重庆旅游商品的市场现状，有针对性地提出了几点开发策略，以期为重庆旅游业发展提供一些有益的启示。     

河流风景区生态旅游环境承载力指标体系研究---以漓江为例

本文给出了生态旅游环境承载力的定义并揭示了其内涵．在深入研究河流风景区的生态旅游环境承载力的特点上，构建了河流风景区的生态旅游环境承载力的指标体系。并以漓江为例进行分析，提出了优化漓江生态旅游环境承载力的措施。